I view polarization as the unifying theme between my study of political behavior and political institutions. The ideological extremity of the major political parties at the mass level determines the politicians we observe at the elite level. In turn, these elites create more or less ideologically extreme policy, bounded by the desires of their constituents and the goals of their parties. The resulting policy subsequently affects how likely individuals are to approve of elite institutions and the policymakers who embody them.
I pair this substantive interest with a broad one in political methodology. I want to make the appropriate model easier to identify, easier to use, and easier to interpret for substantive researchers. I've also written some pieces on teaching political methodology, drawing on my own in-class experience. Recently, I've become interested in public opinion on nascent future-oriented policies.
Below are texts of virtually all of my publications (except books). Items that are accepted, but not forthcoming, are listed on my CV. I update the ungated copies when the articles have been published (not forthcoming) so that I can assign them a DOI. You'll also find all of the replication data for which I am the contact author. If you're interested in data or replication material for other publications, please contact my co-authors!
Haglin, Kathryn, Soren Jordan, and Grant Ferguson. Forthcoming. ``They're Coming for You! How Perceptions of Automation Affect Public Support for Universal Basic Income.'' Social Science Computer Review. DOI: 10.1177/08944393231212252
We use respondent self-reported occuptation, their self-reported likelihood of their occupation being automated, and expert assessments of the likelihood of an occupation being automated to determine whether self-perceptions of automation are accurate as well as whether they affect respondent support for Universal Basic Income. Corresponding author: Kathryn Haglin. (Presented at MPSA in 2021.)
Publisher Site Ungated Text Dataverse
Vande Kamp, Garrett N. and Soren Jordan. Forthcoming. ``The Necessity of Moving Averages in Dynamic Linear Regression Models.'' American Journal of Political Science. DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12825
The preferred tool of political scientists for time series analysis---the ADL model---can be made more robust through one simple inclusion: a moving average. We thus introduce and advocate for the ADLMA model and demonstrate its superior performance at minimal costs. Corresponding author: Garret N. Vande Kamp. (Presented at MPSA in 2021.)
Publisher Site (Open Access and includes Supplemental Appendix) Dataverse
Ferguson, Grant, Kathryn Haglin, and Soren Jordan. 2024. ``The Personality and Politics of Cryptocurrency Investors.'' American Politics Research 52(3): 290-305. DOI: 10.1177/1532673X231220653
We use a nationally representative survey to identify long-term demographic, politics, and personality-based antecedents of cryptocurrency investors, finding that a distinct profile of young, male, and open to experience individuals are most likely to invest. Corresponding author: Grant Ferguson. (Presented at SPSA in 2023.)
Publisher Site Ungated Text Supplemental Appendix Dataverse
Jordan, Soren, Hannah L. Paul, and Andrew Q. Philips. 2023. ``How to Cautiously Uncover the `Black Box' of Machine Learning Models for Legislative Scholars.'' Legislative Studies Quarterly 48 (1): 165-202. DOI: 10.1111/lsq.12378
We argue for an integrated process of theoretical model-building with methodological robustness-checking, marrying parametric models with machine learning insights. We then explicate the three most popular visual tools for machine learning models--variable importance plots, partial dependence plots, and individual conditional expectation plots---with examples motivated for legislative scholars. (Presented at the International Methods Colloquium and MPSA in 2020.)
Publisher Site Ungated Text Supplemental Appendix Dataverse
Jordan, Soren and Andrew Q. Philips. 2023. ``Improving the Interpretation of Random Effects Regression Results.'' Political Studies Review 21 (1): 210-220. DOI: 10.1177/14789299211068418
We make two claims about random effects models: they result in quasi-demeaning that affects substantive interpretation, and they often result in a vanilla regression specification. We develop some simple code to help with the former. Please see the Computing page for more information.
Publisher Site Ungated Text Dataverse
Fisk, Jonathan M., Soren Jordan, and A.J. Good. 2022. The Shale Renaissance: How Fracking Has Changed Pennsylvania in the Twenty-First Century. Pittsburgh: University of Pittsburgh Press.
We leverage a combination of datasets surrounding the production of oil and gas in Pennsylvania as well as management of that production at the state and county level to illustrate the challenges of public administration in a complex environment. I collaborated (as a methods contributor) by providing dataset structure, modeling, and visualization to the project. Corresponding author: Jon Fisk.
Jordan, Soren. 2022. ``Extending Regression to Binary (and More!) Outcomes.'' In Teaching Graduate Political Methodology, eds. Mitchell Brown, Shane Nordyke, and Cameron G. Thies. Northampton, MA: Edward Elgar Publishing, pp. 169-181. DOI: 10.4337/9781800885288.00027
I was invited to contribute a perspective on extending student learning to binary and multinomial response models. I focus on connecting student knowledge to models they've used previously and building interpretative skills that reflect an intuitive sense of what each model is estimating.
Amazon Publisher Site Ungated Text Dataverse
Jordan, Soren. 2022. ``Data Basics for Graduate Students.'' In Teaching Graduate Political Methodology, eds. Mitchell Brown, Shane Nordyke, and Cameron G. Thies. Northampton, MA: Edward Elgar Publishing, pp. 125-133. DOI: 10.4337/9781800885288.00025
I was invited to contribute a framework for orienting ``Day 1'' of a graduate methods class: less about a method or technique, and more about a holistic framework and vocabulary that lays a foundation for student success.
Amazon Publisher Site Ungated Text
Jordan, Soren. 2022. ``Practical Extensions of Regression.'' In Teaching Undergraduate Political Methodology, eds. Mitchell Brown, Shane Nordyke, and Cameron G. Thies. Northampton, MA: Edward Elgar Publishing, pp. 153-163. DOI: 10.4337/9781800885479.00028
I was invited to contribute practical advice on what extensions to cover (and what to avoid) at the end of a typical undergraduate political methodology course. These extensions are motivated by enhancing student learning and ``stoking the fire'' for more methods knowledge.
Amazon Publisher Site Ungated Text Dataverse
Webb, Clayton and Soren Jordan. 2022. ``Avoiding, and Learning From, Mistakes Made by Junior Scholars Teaching Political Methodology.'' PS: Political Science & Politics 55 (1): 236-241. DOI: 10.1017/S1049096521001189
We surveyed the APSA Political Methodology section in the Fall of 2020 to develop advice for junior scholars teaching political methodology courses for the first time. Corresponding author: Clayton Webb. (Presented at the International Methods Colloquium Roundtable on Teaching Political Methodology in 2021.)
Publisher Site Ungated Text Dataverse
Jordan, Soren, Grant Ferguson, and Kathryn Haglin. 2022. ``Measuring and Framing Support for Universal Basic Income.'' Social Policy & Administration 56 (1): 138-147. Partially funded by a Hayek Fund award for $3,000. DOI: 10.1111/SPOL.12760
We use a survey experiment to determine whether framing UBI through a lens of values or policy considerations, as well as priming respondents to consider negative or positive arguments about the policy, changes support for UBI. We find support for UBI is strongly related to partisanship, and experimental frames matter most to cross-pressured individuals. (Presented at MPSA in 2020.)
Publisher Site Ungated Text Supplemental Appendix Dataverse
Haglin, Kathryn, Soren Jordan, Alison Higgins Merrill, and Joseph Daniel Ura. 2021. ``Ideology and Specific Support for the Supreme Court.'' Political Research Quarterly 74 (4): 955-969. DOI: 10.1177/1065912920950482
We present a theory of specific support of the Supreme Court in which liberals and conservatives operate asymmetrically. The Court should be asymmetrically punished for being too liberal, rather than too conservative. Corresponding author: Joseph Daniel Ura. (Presented at MPSA in 2017.)
Publisher Site Ungated Text Supplemental Appendix Dataverse
Jo, Hyeran, Joshua Alley, Yohan Park, and Soren Jordan. 2021. ``Signaling Restraints: International Engagement and Rebel Groups' Commitment to International Law.'' International Interactions 47 (5): 928-954. DOI: 10.1080/03050629.2020.1814761
We identify instances in which rebel groups are likely to retain commitments to international institutions. I collaborated (as a methods contributor) by providing basic text analysis of the rebel groups' commitments. Corresponding author: Hyeran Jo. (Presented at the Conference on Agreements, Law, and International Politics in 2016 and APSA in 2017.)
Publisher Site Ungated Text Supplemental Appendix
Cole, Astin, Haneen Ali, Abdulaziz Ahmed, Mohammad Hamasha, and Soren Jordan. 2021. ``Identifying Patterns of Turnover Intention Among Alabama Frontline Nurses in Hospital Settings During the COVID-19 Pandemic.'' Journal of Multidisciplinary Healthcare 14: 1783-1791. DOI: 10.2147/JMDH.S308397
The Department of Political Science at Auburn University contains a Health Administration program. I collaborated (as a methods contributor) on their work on the COVID-19 epidemic and its resulting effect on nursing burnout in Alabama. Corresponding author: Haneen Ali.
Jordan, Soren and Andrew Q. Philips. 2020. ``Exploring Meaningful Visual Effects and Quantities of Interest from Dynamic Models through Dynamac.'' The Journal of Open Source Software 5 (54): 1-4. DOI: 10.21105/joss.02528
We implement new visualizations of quantities of interest from ARDL models, including visualizations that approximate traditional calculated quantities of interest (like long-run multipliers). (Presented at MPSA in 2019.) Please see the Computing page for more information.
Publisher Site (Open Access) Dataverse
Jordan, Soren. 2020. ``From Ferromagnets to Electoral Instability.'' Nature Physics 16 (2): 125-126. DOI: 10.1038/s41567-019-0761-8
I comment on recent physics research linking electoral stability to natural phenomena like the Ising model.
Jordan, Soren. 2019. ``Leadership PAC Donations and Party Status: A Technical and Theoretical Extension.'' Research & Politics 6 (4): 1-9. DOI: 10.1177/2053168019889558
I replicate Aldrich, Ballard, Lerner, and Rohde (2017), expanding the role of incumbency in LPAC donations and introduction a zero-inflated model to account for the modal $0 contribution.
Publisher Site (Open Access) Supplemental Appendix Dataverse
Jordan, Soren and Andrew Q. Philips. 2018. ``Dynamic Simulation and Testing for Single-Equation Cointegrating and Stationary Autoregressive Distributed Lag Models.'' The R Journal 10 (2): 469-488. DOI: 10.32614/RJ-2018-076
We introduce dynamac for R, a suite of commands designed to assist users in modeling and and visualizing the effects of ARDL models (through dynardl) and implement the bounds test for cointegration (through pssbounds). Please feel free to email me directly with bugs. Please see the Computing page for more information.
Publisher Site (Open Access and Includes Replication Material)
Jordan, Soren and Andrew Q. Philips. 2018. ``Cointegration Testing and Dynamic Simulations of Autoregressive Distributed Lag Models.'' The Stata Journal 18 (4): 902-923. DOI: 10.1177/1536867X1801800409
We introduce dynamac for Stata, a suite of commands designed to assist users in modeling and and visualizing the effects of ARDL models (through dynardl) and implement the bounds test for cointegration (through pssbounds). Please see the Computing page for more information.
Publisher Site Ungated Text Dataverse
Conway, Nicholas D., Soren Jordan, and Joseph Daniel Ura. 2018. ``Courts and Issue Attention in Canada.'' Social Science Quarterly 99 (4): 1324-1348. DOI: 10.1111/ssqu.12496
We pair data collected from Canadian newspapers with Markov-switching dynamic regression (MSDR) models to evaluate whether courts can help set the national policy agenda. Corresponding author: Joseph Daniel Ura. (Presented at the New World of Comparative Political Communication Conference in 2016.)
Wood, B. Dan and Soren Jordan. 2018. ``The Polarizers: Postwar Architects of Our Partisan Era. By Sam Rosenfeld. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2017. 336p. $30.00 cloth.'' Perspectives on Politics 16 (3): 798-800. DOI: 10.1017/S1537592718001974
We review Sam Rosenfeld's book on the micro-level processes in elite polarization.
Wood, B. Dan and Soren Jordan. 2018. ``Response to Sam Rosenfeld's review of Party Polarization in America: The War Over Two Social Contracts.'' Perspectives on Politics 16 (3): 798. DOI: 10.1017/S1537592718001962
We respond to Sam Rosenfeld's review of our recent book.
Wood, B. Dan and Soren Jordan. 2018. ``Presidents and Polarization of the American Electorate.'' Presidential Studies Quarterly 48 (2): 248-270. DOI: 10.1111/psq.12444
We present new measures of electoral polarization. We then evaluate the effect of presidents on polarization, both generally and within the individual parties, using Box-Tiao multiple impact assessments. We find presidents are central to polarization. Corresponding author: B. Dan Wood (retired). (Presented at APSA in 2015.)
Jordan, Soren. 2018. ``Opting Out of Congress: Partisan Polarization and the Decline of Moderate Candidates. By Danielle M. Thomsen. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2017. 202p. $99.99 cloth.'' Perspectives on Politics 16 (1): 230-232. DOI: 10.1017/S1537592717003140
I review Danielle M. Thomsen's book on the lack of ``party fit'' between moderate legislators and their potential parties in Congress.
Wood, B. Dan and Soren Jordan. 2017. Party Polarization in America: The War Over Two Social Contracts. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. DOI: 10.1017/9781108164450
We generate novel empirical data on the nature of ideology in the public, paired with detailed historical accounts of party conflict (largely the work of B. Dan Wood), to illustrate the historical nature of polarization and its fundamental ties to economic policy. Corresponding author: B. Dan Wood (retired). (Portions presented at MPSA in 2012 and APSA in 2011 and 2015.)
Amazon Publisher Site Review in Congress & the Presidency
Jordan, Soren, Kim Quaile Hill, and Patricia A. Hurley. 2017. ``Constituency Representation in Congress: In General and in Periods of Higher and Lower Partisan Polarization.'' In Congress Reconsidered, eds. Lawrence C. Dodd and Bruce I. Oppenheimer. Eleventh edition. Los Angeles: Congressional Quarterly Press, pp. 119-137.
We pair the Partisan Polarization and Issue Complexity theory of representation with the evolving polarization of issues to predict changes in issue representation over time.
Jordan, Soren, and Cynthia J. Bowling. 2016. ``The State of Polarization in the States.'' State and Local Government Review 48 (4): 220-226. DOI: 10.1177/0160323X17699527
We provide an initial investigation of recent advances in data availability on state legislatures to illustrate the progress of elite polarization in the American states.
Publisher Site Ungated Text Dataverse
Jordan, Soren and Grant Ferguson. 2016. ``Extremism in Survey Measures of Ideology.'' Research & Politics 3 (3): DOI: 10.1177/2053168016669743
We use the 1989 ANES Pilot Study to evaluate the effects caused by anchoring the common ideology question with the word ``very'' versus ``extremely.'' We find that more individuals indicate a strong ideology when asked if they are ``very'' versus ``extremely'' ideological, but these same respondents do not have strong ideological policy preferences. This work has implications for measuring polarization using general ideology. (Presented at SPSA in 2012.)
Publisher Site (Open Access) Supplemental Appendix Dataverse
Jordan, Soren. 2016. ``Politics: Basic Concepts.'' In Global Encyclopedia of Public Administration, Public Policy, and Governance, ed. Ali Farazmand. Springer. DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-31816-5_1403-1
I illustrate basic concepts of politics and political science, intended to be used as first introduction for understanding approaches to the field.
Hill, Kim Quaile, Soren Jordan, and Patricia A. Hurley. 2015. Representation in Congress: A Unified Theory. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. DOI: 10.1017/CBO9781316256626
We present an axiomatic theory to account for when different models of dyadic representation (delegate, trustee, responsible party, and so on) arise—along with abundant verification tests of the theory. Corresponding author: Kim Quaile Hill (retired). (Portions presented at MPSA in 2013, APSA in 2011, and SPSA in 2011.)
Amazon Publisher Site Review in Congress & the Presidency
Jordan, Soren, Clayton McLaughlin Webb, and B. Dan Wood. 2014. ``The President, Polarization, and the Party Platforms, 1944-2012.'' The Forum 12 (1): 169-189. DOI: 10.1515/for-2014-0024
This project uses basic tools of cluster analysis along with qualitative coding of the polarizing words in the party platforms to accomplish two goals: understanding the timeline of elite polarization and the dimensions on which the parties have polarized. Corresponding author: B. Dan Wood (retired). (Presented at MPSA in 2013.)